BEIJING — China said on Thursday that its economy rose by 10.7 percent in fourth quarter compared with a year ago, as the country continued to surge forward even as many other nations are still trying to punch through the global recession. That was up from a revised growth rate of 9.1 percent in the third quarter.
Over the whole year, the Chinese gross domestic product grew 8.7 percent, surpassing the 8 percent growth-rate benchmark that Chinese leaders assert is necessary to maintain social stability. If China keeps up that growth rate, it will very likely replace Japan as the world’s second-largest economy by the end of this year.
The National Bureau of Statistics also announced on Thursday that industrial production in December increased by 18.5 percent and retail sales rose by 17.5 percent. The December consumer price index grew by 1.9 percent and producer price index by 1.7 percent. The numbers were generally in line with earlier predictions.
Chinese officials are clearly worried about inflation and bubbles, especially in real estate, but the latest economic statistics will no doubt drive the triumphant tone of recent official pronouncements on the Chinese economy.
Much of that commentary has emphasized the contrast between China’s relatively successful weathering of the global recession and the severe downturn that still afflicts Western economies, including the United States.
A front-page signed editorial on Jan. 5 in the People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Communist Party, praised the party for its far-sighted economic policies and lauded the Chinese economic model.
“When the financial crisis forced the neoliberal economic system into a dead end, the shortcomings of the capitalist system were exposed for all to see,” the editorial said. “But a China that was pushed to a crossroads proved its ‘national capabilities’ in taking on a crisis by answering with the advantage of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.”
Economic numbers released on Thursday also showed China’s export industry was still responsible for much of its growth. Some Chinese economists have said China must restructure its economy so that it begins to rely more on domestic consumption and less on exports, which are greatly affected by the overall health of the world economy.
Chinese officials remain concerned about inflation, excessive bank lending and loan defaults. In recent weeks, they have acted on several fronts to address those issues.
On Jan. 7, the central bank raised a key interest rate, the first time it had done so in nearly five months. Five days later, regulators ordered state-owned banks to set aside a larger share of their deposits as reserves against failed loans. Investors and analysts had not expected such a move until the second quarter of this year.
On Wednesday, Bank of China ordered its credit officials to halt any new renminbi loans in an attempt to curb overheated fast lending growth in the first few weeks of this month.
Economists said China would move to further tighten bank lending to confront inflationary fears and swelling asset bubbles.
“The first half of 2010 is likely to be characterized by gradual policy tightening, chiefly through administrative measures,” Jing Ulrich, director of the China equities and commodities division of J. P. Morgan in Hong Kong, wrote in a report on Thursday. “Concerns about capital inflows and the health of the export sector will limit the scope for interest rate tightening, but we do expect to see a moderation in new bank loans and the use of reserve requirements to manage the volume of money supply.”
Other countries, especially the United States, have also said the artificially low value of the renminbi gives China an unfair advantage in exports, and governments will most likely press China much harder this year to strengthen its currency.
没有评论:
发表评论